Thank to anonymous for sharing below url in my previous article. It's very useful and provide some view on the Maxis IPO valuation to the investor.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125719127352623511.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE59B0P420091012
http://mysmartmoneytips.com/2009/11/02/should-you-subscribe-to-the-maxis-ipo/
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hEev48YbArfdzW87fuguU11b3VBw
Valuation:
Is RM5.2 at the right price? some analysis said it is too high, some said it should be RM4-6, some said you should not pay more than RM7, some said RM6. Which one is correct? Let review some IPO details. Based on the IPO price of RM5.2 per offer share, the total market capitalisation is estimated at RM39 billion. (When Maxis was privatised at RM15.6 per share, the company's market cap stood at RM39 billion as well). According to merchant bankers, if Maxis is valued based on EV/EBITDA, a RM5.2 is too high and translate to >9. Telekom Malaysia ~ 4.99 EV/EBITDA, DIGI.Com ~ 7.25 EV/EBITDA, China Mobile ~ 4.96 EV/EBITDA.
But whatever valuation, i believe Ananda has a record of creation value for his shareholders. right? Let look at Maxis accomplishments over the year and some recent awards.
December 2004 - First operator in Malaysia to launch the BlackBerry
April 2005 - First operator in Malaysi to launch 3G services
September 2006 - First operator in Malaysia to launch HSPA for wireless broadband services
March 2008 - First operator in Malaysia to surpass 10 millions subscriptions
March 2009 - First operator in Malaysia to lanch the Apple iPhone
April 2009 - First operator in Malaysia to launch commercial NFC services
PC.com Awards 2009 - Best Mobile Broadband
Frost & Sullivan Malaysia Telecoms Awards 2009 - Mobile Data Service Provider of the year
Brand Finance Awards 2008 and 2009 - Number 4 brand in Malaysia
Asia Mobile News Awards 2008 - Mobile Operator of the Year Malaysia
Malaysian Effie Awards 2008 - Silver Award Winner.
Market Overview:
Subscribers ('000) Dec2006 Dec2007 Dec2008 June2009
Maxis 8,068 9,765 11,234 11,423
Celcom 6,079 7,202 8,761 9,698
Digi 5,312 6,409 7,062 7,230
Financial Data:
Revenue (Million) Dec2006 Dec2007 Dec2008 June2009
Maxis 6,957.1 7,689.6 8,449.8 4,243.8
Axiata 16,339.2 9,996.9 11,347.7 6,030.4
Digi 3,652.5 4,362.6 4,814,5 2,423.2
PAT (Million) Dec2006 Dec2007 Dec2008 June2009
Maxis 2,105.4 1,980.2 2,400.4 1,141.0
Axiata 2,302.3 1,847.6 471.1 621.8
Digi 805.7 1,062.6 1,140.7 509.9
base on some peer comparison, are you favour in Maxis? is Maxis IPO too expensive for you? Dear investor, you have a choice :)
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
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u r too late, u should comment much earlier la! anyway, IPO, u need to know what it means, it is attractive, you interested, you pay money, does not mean u will get it. u apply 1000 shares, u may get 0, 100, 1000 depending on the demand, this is the case when u apply via white form which open to public. if only get 100 shares, the profit that you will have on this IPO, is not really a lot because you have to put in rm5200, if it listed with price RM8, u earn rm2.8x100 = rm280, with modal RM5200. so...if u have blue form or green form then that is another story. anyway, since the stupid maxis do not give me the blue form, so i also din go to study what will be the real case for blue form & green form for this IPO. In my guess, is that, if use blue form, if success will get 1000 shares, if rejected, will get back money, no other numbers...then green form, if u apply, u will sure get 1000.
ReplyDeleteSometime, it may not really worth to go for IPO. Cause it hold your money for quite sometime, if ur application fail, they will return u money after a while, i am not sure if u still on time to use that money to buy the maxis shares after it listed.
regards
yewtatt
I think if you put in rm5200, if it listed with price RM8, than you u earn rm2.8x1000 = rm2800, with modal RM5200, which is slightly more than 50% return.
ReplyDeleteLet not also forget the listed one is only the Malaysia operation. Ananda, well known for his savviness in business will be not supid enough to let others to have a piece of his sweet delicious pie. One who wish to go for the IPO should ask what's the potential of Maxis in Malaysia, is there still room for double digit growth potential, or is it a market which is approaching maturity. Do you see him listing the Indon and India operation? Why not? That's one question you should ask...
ReplyDeleteTo top that up, why do you think he privatise the company two years ago only to be listed again. Rumours at the street is that he's being pressured by Gov to list Maxis again. So he has the intention to have it all by himself 2 years ago, do you think he'll just give it all up again so easily?
ReplyDeletefundamental wise, digi more attractive with a better dividend yield.
ReplyDeleteproblem is, stock , especially IPO is more sentimental driven